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Ordinarily, the NFL's Coach of the Year honor follows a simple formula. It often acts as a kind of apology. We regret we underestimated your team in our pre-campaign predictions.

In theory, it's a clear-cut path: the skipper who orchestrated the most dramatic improvement wins the award. However, it creates an yearly argument about expectations and whether we're genuinely honoring superior coaching or simply the greatest surprise.

Yet this year's field is profoundly unique. The list of nominees is unusually talented. It has been the year of resurgences. The NFL has been messy, with reigning division champions falling away and recent underperformers rising together. During an typical year, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the clear front-runner. Yet in this wild and thrilling year, he's up against five other exceptional coaches.

Here is how the hypothetical vote ought to be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year voters adore QBs. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you fix a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just corrected his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. Within an ideal environment, the QB has been afforded the chance to showcase his special talent. From Week 9, the Bears sit at number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's sustained performance. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, far less careless, and has eagerly submitted to the system rather than freelancing. It is an offense designed solely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball ground attack, a heavy helping of play-action and a innovative passing attack that creates wide receiver targets consistently. The QB has taken advantage. And when easy reads weren't available, he's been able to create big plays out of broken plays.

The coach came to the Bears with a clear offensive blueprint. Almost every gamble – rebuilding the trenches, highlighting the pass-catchers, turning the QB into a timing-based thrower – has succeeded. That's rare for a rookie skipper. And it's rarer still for a coach who walked into the building with the kind of hype he did. For two straight cycles, he was the hottest candidate on the coaching carousel. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are no guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even exceeded them. He's proven not only to be a offensive wizard but the type of leader that can inject fresh energy into an organization.

During a typical season, Johnson would be the overwhelming choice. But the current is not a typical season!

Where his case comes a bit unstuck is on defense. The Bears presently sit in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are relying on takeaways, and turnovers are famously unreliable. Defensive minds can stress creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is legitimate. He's not higher because variance is doing too much of the defense's work. If not for a few bounces of the ball, the team would be two victories behind. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the foundation is established for long-term winning. But Johnson falls just short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4

Coen is in a comparable position to Johnson. He's a fellow first-time head coach who has engineered a swift resurgence. Over the crucial final weeks of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best all-around ball of his career. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defensive unit that now sits at fifth in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more notably, he has nailed the intangibles stuff, which was not a given following his initial public introduction and some of his preseason moves.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an exceptionally raw coaching staff. Unlike Johnson, who packed themselves with the perfect staff mix of youth and experience, Coen trusted newbies. Starting with the leader himself to assistants to position coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That type of approach is intriguing in theory, but often fails in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everyone is figuring out a new job in real-time. But Coen has managed to bring the entire group and all elements together.

Following an early hot beginning, there was a risk that the season would go off the rails. A midseason setback caused the team stumbling again. That's typically when coaches panic and change too much. Coen didn't. Instead, he streamlined things. The offense stopped pursuing explosive answers and started seeking consistent ones. Coen refocused the attack around his playmakers and the ground attack, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more.

The results are obvious. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. He gets the tiniest knock in the standings because he inherited a skilled roster, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3

Every Strong of the Year argument has a defining decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB choice.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a different quarterback and pairing him with an new offensive coordinator might have ended the campaign in the early weeks. Instead, it defined it. Through the mid point of the year, the new QB was an MVP candidate. He has fallen away after that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, placing him only a single spot ahead of peers.

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