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China has sent its maritime law enforcement through the waters of the Diaoyu islands and military drones past remote Japanese territory as China ramps up tensions over the Japanese prime minister’s comments regarding Taiwan.

Rights Enforcement Activities

This past Sunday, the China's maritime patrol announced that its ships carried out a “lawful patrol operation” through the territorial seas of the Senkaku, which are under the control of Tokyo but also asserted as territory by Beijing.

“China coast guard vessel 1307 formation conducted patrols within the territorial waters of the Senkaku islands. This was a legitimate rights enforcement activity conducted by the China coast guard to protect its sovereign claims,” officials declared.

Diplomatic Spat

China and Japan have repeatedly faced off around the islands but the recent developments occur during an escalating political dispute after the Japan's leader, Sanae Takaichi, addressed lawmakers that if China attack democratically ruled Taiwan it could trigger a armed reaction from Japan.

That sparked an angry response from Beijing, which has signalled it expects a retraction from Takaichi.

Island's Stance

China claims the island as its own territory and intends to annex it under what it terms “unification”. It has left open the use of force. Taiwan’s government and citizens categorically refuse the prospect of Chinese rule – preferring to maintain the status quo without explicitly declaring themselves independent, but pledging to protect their sovereignty if necessary.

An military assault by China would risk escalating into a international confrontation, possibly drawing in the US and other partner nations including Japan, which has territory just 68 miles from the island.

Defense Operations

In Taiwan, the defence ministry said on Sunday morning that it had detected 30 Chinese military aircraft, multiple naval vessels and one government vessel, which was likely the maritime patrol, active near the island over the past 24 hours.

Maps provided by the ministry showed up to three drones flying between the island and the Japanese islands off its northeastern shoreline, appearing to go particularly close to Yonaguni. PLA movements there are not rare, but infrequent, and Beijing's defense operations in the island's ADIZ generally has been low in the past month.

Late on Saturday, the defense officials said China had been carrying out another “combined military exercise” to “test our defensive capabilities”. It noted Taiwan had dispatched military assets to track the developments. Taiwan reports such Chinese patrols a few times monthly as part of what Taipei says is an continuous strategic pressure.

Political Strain

Tokyo has been facing mounting pressure from Beijing since the Japanese official made her comments, with Beijing's diplomatic representative in Osaka prompting a formal protest from Japan by stating that “the dirty head that sticks itself out must be cut off”.

Beijing then called in Japan's diplomat for the first time in more than two years, and Beijing's military authorities declared that any Japanese intervention would be certain to collapse.

Warning for Citizens

Late last week, China advised its people to avoid visiting Japan, prompting Tokyo to urge Beijing to take “suitable actions”, though it did not elaborate.

Three Chinese airlines announced this weekend that tickets to Japan could be cancelled without penalty.

Adding to the tensions, China’s government on Sunday urged its citizens to “carefully reconsider” studying in Japan, citing what it characterized as an volatile safety situation.

While the advice does not amount to a ban, a significant decrease in the number of Chinese students could have a detrimental effect on Japanese universities. A record 336,708 foreign nationals were enrolled in Japanese schools last year, according to education statistics. They featured over 123,000 learners from China – by far the single biggest group.

Official Commentary

Late on Saturday, a Chinese state media editorial accused Takaichi of staging a political stunt that was “not just dangerously provocative but fundamentally perverse”.

“A clash between Tokyo and Beijing would not be a small-scale encounter; it would likely draw in other nations, including the US, and could rapidly escalate to a major confrontation with severe repercussions.”

Strategic Positions

The administration in Taipei says the island's residents alone determine their destiny. Officials in Tokyo have traditionally refrained from publicly mentioning Taiwan when addressing potential conflicts, maintaining a “strategic ambiguity” also preferred by Japan's primary defense partner, the US.

However, China’s ruling Communist party says the incorporation of the island with the People’s Republic of China is “unavoidable”, and casts any opposition to it as escalatory. As it moves towards being capable of military annexation, Beijing has also been escalating its non-military activity and its rhetoric towards the island.